Thursday, June 26, 2008

Inflation: 'Destroying governments since 1789'

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=443494&in_page_id=2
William Rees-Mogg,
Mail on Sunday
23 June 2008, 11:39am
Reader comments (5)

One of the best books about inflation is The Great Wave, by David Hackett Fischer. I read it with admiration when it was first published in 1996 and I have been re-reading it now inflation is back.

I have experienced only too much of the recent history of inflation over the past 60 years.
For most of that time I've been reporting on it as a financial journalist. I share Fischer's belief that the best way to study inflation is to study its history. Theoretical economic models do not tell the whole story.

Karl Marx analysed the French Revolution, primarily in terms of class conflict. Yet inflation was a potent revolutionary influence. As Fischer writes: 'From 1789-99 every twist and turn of fortune in the French Revolution was closely tied to movement of prices.'

The French Revolution is usually thought to have begun on July 14, 1789, the day the Paris mob stormed the Bastille. Fischer provides a graph that shows July 14 was also the day on which bread prices peaked in Paris.

Inflation destroyed King Louis XVI, the constitutional monarchy, the Jacobin dictatorship and the Directorate. It brought Napoleon to power, just as the German inflation of the Twenties helped to bring Hitler to power in 1933.

In Britain today the extraordinary swing against Gordon Brown's Government has happened as the price of energy and food are rising and the price of houses falling.

There are parallels between the present inflationary situation and the great inflation that started in the mid-Sixties and ended in the mid-Nineties.

In the Sixties, America was pouring troops and money into Vietnam. When President John F. Kennedy was assassinated, there were only a few thousand Americans in Vietnam. By the time President Lyndon B. Johnson retired in January 1969, there were about 500,000.

President Johnson is praised for his expansion of the American services. Yet he expanded social expenditure and fought a war in South-East Asia without raising taxes to pay for them.

In the past seven years, President George W. Bush has fought wars in Iraq and Afghanistan while cutting taxes. Both wartime presidents have financed their wars by borrowing.

'The rate of American inflation,' as Fischer observes, 'trebled from 1961-66.' The global Bretton Woods system, with its fixed rates and dollar convertibility into gold, could not stand the strain, and was wound up by President Richard Nixon between 1971 and 1973.

There is another parallel between the oil price inflation of 2008 and those of the Seventies. Now we are worrying about a peak in oil production and growing Asian demand, then we were worried about the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) Cartel. But oil prices have surged to unheard-of prices in both periods.

The Seventies was a horrible economic decade, British unionism became militant and successive governments were on a conveyor belt to electoral defeat. British Prime Ministers fell in succession: Harold Wilson in 1970, Ted Heath in 1974, and James Callaghan in 1979.
Inflation only came under control in the Eighties, partly due to Margaret Thatcher, and partly due to Paul Volcker's monetary policies at the US Federal Reserve Board. As inflation was brought under control, the Tories remained in power for 18 years followed by Labour's 11 years to date.

When inflation started to rise in the mid-Sixties, there were few convincing policies for bringing it back under control. The dominant economic doctrinism was Keynesianism, derived from John Maynard Keynes, the most eminent British economist of the early 20th Century. Its guns were all pointing at unemployment, not at inflation.

Only in the Seventies did the alternative doctrine of monetarism, based on the work of a Chicago professor, Milton Friedman, begin to replace Keynesianism as the standard orthodoxy. Friedman believed inflation could be cured only by stabilising the money supply.

Most economists recognise the principle that lies behind the monetarist revolution of the Seventies, but they see that monetarism is dependent on other factors; pure monetarism is almost as hard to maintain as a pure gold standard.

Friedman argued that inflation was a disorder of money, which could only be cured by monetary policies. There is evidence from the gold standard itself that a fixed but gradually rising money supply can provide price stability over very long periods.

Sir Isaac Newton was Master of the Mint in 1717. He reorganised the English currency on the basis of the golden guinea. This gold system had to be suspended during the Napoleonic Wars and in the First World War, but essentially it lasted from 1717 until Britain left the gold standard in 1931. It seems almost incredible that the purchasing power of gold in 1931 was only three per cent below what it had been when Newton created the gold system.

Gold has the advantage that it cannot be created by central bankers, still less by governments seeking re-election. New mined gold provides for industrial use and jewellery, and for some growth. Yet gold gave the world a stable money supply for 200 years.

The modern world might have a more stable economy and far more stable prices if the gold standard had survived. Nevertheless, there is no possibility of recreating it. The modern world does not accept the authority of objective standards.

The gold standard worked so well because it provided a stable monetary base for a growing economy with relatively stable prices and interest rates.

Successful central bankers often mimic in their monetary policy what the gold standard might have done automatically.

Even so, based on history, we can forecast that every major currency in the world will lose at least 90% of its value by 2100. Inflation is here to stay.

KPMG fined £1.5m over fraud failure

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=443586&in_page_id=3

Robert Lea, Evening Standard
25 June 2008, 9:29am

A £1.5m-a-year high-flying auditor and his firm KPMG have been fingered for failing to spot the massive Independent Insurance fraud, one of the largest financial scandals of the last decade which cost hundreds of jobs and left hundreds of thousands of investors out of pocket.

KPMG and partner Andrew Sayers have been hit with penalties totalling £1.65m for their failure to alert investors to the fraudulent trading of the bosses of what was - before its collapse in 2001 - one of Britain's largest and best-regarded insurance companies.
In a ruling out today from the Accountants Joint Disciplinary Tribunal, KPMG and Sayers were found to have 'seriously' fallen short of their duties as auditors, allowing Independent's subsequentlyconvicted management to hoodwink employees, advisers, financial markets and shareholders.

Independent chief executive Michael Bright was convicted of fraud and sent down last November for seven years. Finance director Dennis Lomas and deputy managing director Philip Condon were jailed for four and three years respectively.
But the role of KPMG in not smoking out Bright's dishonesty has now been laid bare. The tribunal findings reveal that in signing off Independent's 2000 accounts, KPMG gave a clean bill of health for so-called stop-loss reinsurance contracts which hid £105m of losses on escalating claims against the company, instead allowing it to book a £22m profit.
The firm gave the accounts an unqualified audit report, despite having serious reservations about the stop-loss contract being written on uncommercial terms.
Sayers took advice from four fellow partners over whether he should contact the third-party reinsurers over the contract. Only one partner suggested he should, but Sayers ignored his advice and instead relied on Bright's story that the reinsurers had given Independent preferential terms because of long-standing relationships.

The contract was a fiction, and just six weeks after KPMG signed off those accounts in March 2001, Bright resigned. The company went into liquidation the following June.
'KPMG's and Mr Sayers' conduct in relation to the audit of of the stop-loss contract fell seriously below the appropriate standard,' said tribunal chairman Adrian Brunner QC.
'Having identified an apparent lack of commercial rationale for the stop-loss policies and in the knowledge of the highly material effect on the financial statements, an auditor of good standing should not have placed such complete reliance on management representations.'
Sayers remains a partner at KPMG which said it regretted the 'shortcomings' of its audit work.
Two years ago KPMG paid an undisclosed sum in compensation to Independent's liquidators.

Monday, June 23, 2008

WHY THE UK / US HAVE LET ZIMBABWE / MORGAN TSVANGIRAI DOWN?

Sometime back I wrote the article:- MUGABE- All good things must come to an end
.fullpost{display:inline;}

My view of the current Zim scenario confirms to me that the editors of the recent headlines on Sky News and other western TV broadcasts are a little naive, have little understanding of the Zimbabwe mindset or have a hidden agenda.

Mugabe must leave, but it must be left to the Zimbabweans themselves, not foreign entities, that is the principal reason why other African governments will not comment, after all they reason that there have been violent elections in most of the countries of Southern Africa and never were any nations requested to comment, so the nations may be asking 'why now?', as Thabo Mbeki has intimated, other nations can only facilitate discussion, not take sides without totally understanding the total make-up of the current stalemate. And perhaps they will be saying to the choruses of 'Leaders must speak up' that who should we be speaking up for? the Zimbabweans that voted for MDC? the total Zimbabwean people? the displaced white farmers? the UK/ USA/ Australia/ Western world? the line is so thin commenting may seem like participating in the election process.

How is the UK and US propping up Mugabe?

  • by shamelessly participating in the local elections of Zimbabwe with diplomats zipping around Zimbabwe trying to prove atrocities committed
  • by only supporting one party in the elections rather than taking a neutral role.
  • as Mugabe and his cronies may see it, by ganging up on him and Zanu-pf , but losing legitimacy because, Australia, USA etc who have been the loudest so far have links to Great Britain the former colonial master and may be viewed as speaking for like entities who have effectively silenced the Native Indian and Aborigines respectively.
  • in direct addition to the last point comes the issue of reminding the Zimbabweans of how they suffered under British sponsored rule (Ian Smith), and reigniting the fervour amongst a significant section of the Zimbabwe nation.
  • Why did it take so long to get rid of the Apartheid SA govt.? Where was Australia, USA, UK etc then? supporting the then regime perhaps as most Africans would remember, my point being? Africans don't trust the UK, USA on their actions of the past, the treatment of the HAMAS and FIS elections in the North do not help, Neither does the Equatorial Guinea failed coup plot.
  • Perhaps in effect the UK/USA have driven Mugabe and his cronies into a corner mentally, by the sanctions they have faced as a government thus far and the recent verbal hyperbole, in the siege mentality that ensues I hypothesize Mugabe and company see the UK/US as the same 'enemy' they faced that is still after their land and have their reasons for that just or not, they will undoubtedly fight to the very end any party that seems too close to their traditional 'enemy', the same friends they had in the past China, Russia have stood by them, this is more complex than meets the eye or can be explained by an outsider like me but it does not take a rocket scientist to see the UK/ US posturing is hurting the electoral process rather than anything at all.

This will be an interesting one to unravel for Zim itself, I remain committed that for most parts of Africa the western model of Democracy will never work as packaged, we need to model them to suit our culture, our traditions and the level of participation of our people, we need governments of unity or the Tanzanian model of democracy, only through those unity vehicles will we have fundamental policy ownership and continuity especially the all important economic policies and move on from the poverty that now reigns supreme, Mugabe and MDC should roll up their shirts, get greasy and sweaty but only by talking this out, Zimbabweans are intelligent and big enough to sort this matter by themselves, they urgently need to get out of this stalemate without the new president being elected on a 'western sympathy' podium and thus losing respect and legitimacy in the eyes of a significant portion of his subjects, the western world has let down Zimbabwe and Morgan now seems tainted, maybe unfairly so, he in my view has been reduced to a 'liberator' of sorts but not a future president, Zimbabweans will more likely unite around a different new figure other than both Morgan or Bob. but for now Morgans continued pandering for a foreign audience has made him make mistake number one, disregarding the Electoral body in Zim in withdrawing without providing official notice of his withdrawal perhaps handing the presidency to Mugabe on a silver platter, shot himself in the foot for now? lets wait and see....

Robert Mugabe's time is gone but the west has to tone down its rhetoric, we had our Dr Banda, he eventually left after Malawians themselves voted him out, irregardless of government machinery or violence from Malawi Young Pioneers or the notorious 'Youths'. We need Zimbabwe to be strong again, there is so much that the entire region is losing out on with Zimbabwe's current situation, the sooner all the posturing is laid to rest the better for all of Africa, politics is not the key to this one, common sense is.

But then again thats just me rambling my head off, who knows? maybe one day I'll wake up to President Morgan's speech in the UN!

Saturday, June 21, 2008

To Be More Than Equal: The Many Lives of Martin R. Delany1812-1885



Explorer
Doctor
Author
Thinker
Trailblazer
First Black Field Officerin the US Army
And Conscience to All

"His was a magnificent life, and yet, how many of us have heard of him?"--W.E.B. DuBois, The Pittsburgh Courier, July 25, 1936.

"Do not fail to meet this most extraordinary and intelligent black man."--President Abraham Lincoln toSecretary of War Edwin Stanton, February 8, 1865

Introduction
Search Index
Time Line
Early Years
Pittsburgh Years
"The North Star" Years
Lost Hope
Abroad
Wartime
Carolina Reconstruction



What Martin Delany Wrote and Thought
Poems






Exploring the Law of Unintended Consequences

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/01/21/unintended_consequences/

Unintended consequence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Marginal Revolution: The Law of Unintended Consequences

Unintended Consequences, by Rob Norton: The Concise Encyclopedia ...

The Law Of Unintended Consequences

The Parable Of Brother Leo

An old legend tells of a French monastery that was well-known throughout Europe because of the extraordinary leadership of a man known only as Brother Leo.

Several monks began a pilgrimage to visit Brother Leo to learn from him. Almost immediately, the monks began to bicker as to who should do various chores. On the third day they met another monk who was also going to the monastery.
This monk never complained or shirked a duty. Whenever the others would fight over a chore, he would gracefully volunteer to do it himself. By the last day, the other monks were following his example, and everyone worked together smoothly.

When they reached the monastery and asked to see Brother Leo, the man who greeted them laughed. "But our brother is among you!" pointing to the fellow who had joined them late in the trip.

Today, many people seek leadership positions not so much for what they can do for others, but for what the position can do for them: status, connections, perks, or future advantages. As a result, they do service primarily as an investment, a way to build an impressive résumé.
The parable about Brother Leo teaches another model of leadership, where leaders are more preoccupied with serving than being followed, with giving than getting, with doing than demanding. It's leadership based on example, not command. It's called servant leadership.

Can you imagine how much better things would be if more politicians, educators, and business executives saw themselves as servant leaders?

Michael Josephson
http://www.charactercounts.org/

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

CREDIT RATING AGENCIES- TO BLAME FOR THE CREDIT CRUNCH??

EU to regulate credit rating agencies-
By Sean FarrellTuesday, 17 June 2008
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eu-to-regulate-credit-rating-agencies-848574.html

Credit rating agencies will face mandatory regulation by the European Union after they failed to spot the risks of structured credit products that triggered the credit crunch.

Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch, which dominate the lightly regulated sector, have been criticised for getting too close to their clients when giving ratings on debt instruments.

Charlie McCreevy, the EU's internal market commissioner, said self-regulation had not worked and that the agencies' voluntary code of conduct was "a toothless wonder". He dismissed the view of national regulators that a beefed-up voluntary approach was the best option.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Tiger at the US Open this weekend

this weekends video highlights:

www.usopen.com/en_US/video/index.html

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

News Alert: Obama Claims the Democratic Presidential Nomination

By Chris Cillizza washingtonpost.com

Sen. Barack Obama claimed the Democratic nomination for president in a speech in Minnesota tonight -- an historic achievement that for the first time will place an African American at the top of a major political party's ticket.

After months of see-saw battling with his arch Democratic rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, ending tonight with Obama and Clinton splitting primaries in Montana and South Dakota, Obama will be immediately thrust into a pitched general election battle with Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the presumptive Republican nominee.

In speeches by both men tonight, they sought to define the parameters of the contest to come. Obama cast McCain as an insufficient change agent after eight years of George W. Bush's presidency. McCain insisted that Obama represents the wrong kind of change.
In a speech to a raucus crowd at the Xcel Center in St. Paul, Obama declared: "Tonight I can stand here and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States."
Obama went on to praise his Democratic opponents as "the most talented, qualified field of individuals ever to run for this office," but he saved special plaudits for Clinton.
He referred to the former first lady as "a leader who inspires millions of Americans with her strength, her courage and her commitment to the causes that brought us here tonight." Obama wasn't done. "Our party and our country are better off because of her, and I am a better candidate for having the honor to compete with Hillary Rodham Clinton," he said.
Obama also made a direct appeal to Clinton supporters, especially women, who may be unhappy about the tenor and the results of the Democratic primary. "At the end of the day we aren't the reason you came out and waited in lines that stretched block after block to make your voice heard," said Obama. "You didn't do that because of me or Senator Clinton or anyone else."
Obama scored his final primary victory in Montana and was quickly endorsed by the state's governor as well as the two Democratic senators. Clinton, meanwhile, claimed a come-from-behind victory in South Dakota, after trailing in the state for weeks.

Clinton, who spoke roughly 30 minutes before Obama at Baruch College in New York City, congratulated the Illinois senator for the "extraordinary race" he ran, although she did not acknowledge he had effectively won the nomination and stressed that "I will be making no decisions tonight" about her future plans.
Clinton repeatedly touted her popular vote strength, noting that she had received nearly 18 million total votes. "Even when the pundits and the naysayers proclaimed week after week that this race was over, you kept on voting," she said to roars from the assembled crowd. She added that her campaign has won the swing states "necessary to get to 270 electoral votes."
Mathematically, there is little debate that Obama is his party's presumptive nominee. As polls closed in Montana at 10 p.m. Eastern time, the Obama campaign rolled out more than two dozen superdelegates -- putting him well above the 2,118 delegates required to become the formal nominee of his party.
Obama had 2,146 total delegates -- 28 more than he needed to cinch the nomination -- according to Associated Press' calculations. Clinton had 1,907 delegates.

McCain, 71, who secured the Republican nomination months ago, sought to begin the general election in earnest in a speech tonight in which he praised Clinton and attacked Obama as the wrong sort of change.
"Senator Clinton has earned great respect for his tenacity and courage," McCain said. "The media often overlooked how compassionately she spoke to the concerns and dreams of millions of Americans, and she deserves a lot more appreciation than she sometimes received." His remarks appeared to be a direct appeal to the many Clinton supporters who have indicated in exit polls that they wouldn't back Obama in the general election.
When it came to Obama, McCain was less complimentary. While he praised the Illinois senator as a "formidable" foe for the fall, McCain described Obama as supporting the wrong kind of change for the country. McCain also rejected Obama's attempts to link the Arizona Republican to President Bush's policies. "He tries to drum it into your minds by constantly repeating it rather than debate honestly the very different directions he and I would take the country," said McCain of Obama's tactic.

For his part, Obama, 46, sought to portray McCain as a political clone of Bush, supporting his stands on the war in Iraq and tax cuts. "While John McCain can legitimately tout moments of independence from his party in the past, such independence has not been the hallmark of his presidential campaign," said Obama.
Obama entered the day roughly 40 delegates away from the magic number of 2,118 necessary to officially secure the nomination. A steady stream of superdelegates announced their support for him throughout the day, however, steadily moving him toward the coveted political goal line. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (S.C.), the highest-ranking African American in Congress, declared in endorsing Obama: "Today the process ends."
Even as Clinton pledged to speak with her supporters about what the next step in her campaign should be, there were signs that she was leaving open the possibility of serving as Obama's vice president.
During a conference call with New York members of Congress, Clinton was asked by Rep. Nydia Velasquez to consider accepting the vice presidency in order to ensure that Hispanics turned out in strong numbers for the Democratic ticket.
Clinton responded that she was willing to do "whatever it takes" to elect a Democrat in the fall -- a statement widely interpreted as expressing some level of interest in being named Obama's runningmate against McCain in the fall campaign.
Clinton aides warned, however, that the New York senator had not spent any serious time weighing her political future -- choosing instead to focus on performing as well as possible in the final two primaries of nomination process.
Even if Clinton is interested in the vice presidency, it was not immediately clear that the post would be offered to her. "We don't have a short list or a long list," said senior Obama strategist David Axelrod. "We're coming here tonight to finish the process. It's way too early to talk about that."

Washington Post staff writer Shailagh Murray contributed to this report.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Nkhota kota Beckons/ A tall tale of rice.

The world is experiencing a serious shortage in the supply of rice, some supermarkets in the UK are actually controlling the amounts of lbs (kgs) bought per person! the basics of supply and demand then would dictate this to be a boon for Africa's rice farmers, so when the big buyers come searching and knocking in the village town centres the prices have to reflect the scarcity of the commodity...... in my cuckoo land I would encourage, no, I would force the village farmers in Nkhota kota to pool their various singular harvests together and sell that through a trusted intermediary who would by virtue of the size of product created by the pooling and more plus a better sense of prices make sure the rice farmer in Nkhota kota yields a better return per 'lb', and for this year 2008 lets pretend rice will replace tobacco's status as our main forex earner.

Why did the likes of Rab Processors become so successful? the villager sold locally at local prices whilst they sold internationally in dollar prices in the markets where they could get the best price, top dollar mate! Poor farmer in the village, poor Admarc, they could not survive, their management and business model were not dynamic enough. Does that make Rab Processors bad, definitely not, just good businessmen, they saw the opportunities and seized them, they waited for the country to harvest, they went around the villages and bought produce, the farmer felt more comfortable as they no longer needed to travel far to sell their produce, the buyer came to their village, then after a countrywide exercise what did they then have, the entire country's harvest in their stocks!! The country had done the farming for them and they bought the produce fair and square. Good businessmen. Very Clever.

Imagine if you will the massive middle class in China suddenly eating meat, cereals and all the status foods you can imagine every day. And if anything has to go by the Italy food UN meet of today, in which Mugabe sang praises of his 'land redistribution' programme, and the world does indeed experience severe food or even mild food shortages as forecast, my my!! a whole massive international market waiting to be fed (Dollars!!!), then Africa's food crops/ animals, grown to satisfactory Eurozone specification will be 'green gold' in the next few years, so I prophesise a rush by foreign entities to buy African land, sudden growth in farm numbers and commercial farming, artificial rain where possible, deliberate river diversions, lower unemployment rates, lower crime rates and higher taxation on food crops. So what are we waiting for? lets go farming! all we now need are good rains and constructive deliberate policy to empower the local african farmer to do more than carry just a hoe, we need to mechanise him, make him understand a P & L acount, we need to make him 'more' and he doesnt have to spend 4 years in Bunda Uni for that.

Suddenly it becomes clear why Mugabe is such a pariah to the British political set-up, he disturbed a critical link in the chain of food supply to the motherland, by taking away the land from the British farmer he deprived the British public of a steady guaranteed source of fresh food, Zimbabwe was a solid British farm in Africa, processing units, whole businesses prior to the market shelf were disturbed, the number of cargo flights between Harare and London fell etceteras etceteras, it must have been a multi-million pound loss, it still is for both Zimbabwe and 'Britain'.

Back to Malawi's parliament and they are still bickering and running around in small circles, and the bankers, they'll still only lend to the already rich- history will not be kind to us. Another lost opportunity. Reminds me of an old Queen (Freddie Mercury) song's lyrics- 'I am a great pretender, I pretend too much'.