Monday, July 14, 2008

The Obama Effect- Will it bring peace to the Middle East?

As one listens to McCain publicly expound his plans for America, one can't help to feel a weary, tired and dog eared undertone lacing the 'straight talk' delivering. Do the American voters feel it too? and what about the rest of the world? do they feel it? does that then explain the 'hurried' flurry of activity behind the scenes from various nations east, west, south and north that have been affected somewhat by the US of A on both the friendly and foe sides of the rail track? the slow realisation that something called change that has been busy behind the scenes is about to rear its head, the inevitability of a dawning change in focus of the US of A's foreign policy after the presidential elections, perhaps the endless question marks posed by the young relatively inexperienced junior senator from Illinois's seeming ascension to the US presidency and his ideas of what the world should be.

Perhaps the sudden importance of the re-emergence of an ultra-confident Putin Russia on the scene with far much potential wealth in natural resources and future world power, the emergence of powers from unlikely billion plus populated nations like China and India whose basic approaches to life in general by applying the cheapest possible technologies after reverse engineering have materialised by leaps and bounds, perhaps by the weakening of the Western economies with no end in immediate sight and the slow grind of high oil prices bringing the west and world to their respective knees. Little Zimbabwe on the other end shows its pride by saying punish us if you may, starve us if you may but the land is ours and the worst that can happen to us is poverty while it tries to pretend away violent elections, the western fear: will this catch on in the minion nations of the rest of the world, this national pride above all.

It was easier in olden times, the then so called empires would simply send an 'explorer' to charm the pants of a weak foreign chief or simply militarily invade someones rich in natural resource land, either way the empires of the west would cart home every raw material of their fancy including humans with little cost to themselves...., those days are long gone as we witness the world effectively ignoring powers such as the US, as we witness the weakening of information gathering by the west on the world impacting on their decision making, we note growing global boldness in world condemnation of old empire style military invasions such as the Bush/Blair Iraq invasion, we see the ease of information gathering by the outside world by manipulating (hacking) online data storage's of the main players while someone sits on a simple computer thousands of miles away, the spread of hitherto privileged technology around the world and the labeling of nations such as Iran and North Korea as being part of the 'axis of evil' due to their possession of this hidden craft of the powers- nuclear technology.

All the time the shifting sands carry us along with them, the inevitability of change looms as it always has, that inevitability that weakened the Inca empire, the Pharaohs of Egypt and such powers of the distant past that did not adapt fast enough to the changes of the world. Change is manifested in Sarkozy in France as he takes over the leadership of Middle East peace initiative through the EU (ref: Mediterranean Union Launches Amid Hopes for Peace Europe ...) , Assad of Syria, Iran, the bold freedom fighters now still 'terrorist' bodies in Palestine and Lebanon, the emerging powerful nation bloc in South America that has successfully eased Cuba out of the US sanctions, the people powers of China and India, the new Oil powers around the world, the inevitable change that is troubling the Brown government, a good man caught up in a 'doable' job at the wrong time, and of course the possibility of Obama becoming the president of the US.

Times are changing and the wise old men and intelligentsia are adapting to it behind the scenes at a frantic pace, all you need to see is the new posturing of Israel, a fundamental player within the Mideast peace, the voting patterns in the United States, the changing of the guard around the world- the new leaders of Latin America ( Colombia's Uribe, Chavez, Lula in Brazil etceteras), the world still has hope after all, peace may come sooner that we anticipate, we live in exciting times, the redistribution of wealth currently taking place is phenomenal, India is riding on a wave of merchantable high IQ's- business world mercenaries as it were cheaper to hire for good quality results, the middle east is swimming in oil money, China's success is built on a dizzying mixture of an empowered law of large numbers, hard work, ambition, control etc, Africa in the meanwhile glows in a new sense of pride and realisation that we are much more than slaves attitude characterised by Tanzania's Kikwete.

The world is changing and its a darn lot harder for the bigger more established brothers to change direction, as per Newtons first law of motion, an object continues to move in the same direction and at the same speed unless compelled by an external force to act otherwise. That external force that's forcing the change in foreign policy in the main powers of the west is that the rest of the world is moving along without them, and how do you rein in a huge ship that no longer depends on you? re-energise unity in the UN? invite more emerging powers to the G8? spread the global love before a massive growing bloc isolates the West? In the meanwhile a surprised and unprepared Ban Kyi Moon struggles at the helm of the United Nations caught in at the vortex of the shifting sands, changing times call for great men, will he rise to the occasion?

We live in exciting times and we are in the midst of an unprecedented changing of the guard in the whole world, a new breed of leadership representative of the current population's thinking, standing still wont save you from the new world order, neither will burying your head in the sand or ignoring the situation, ironically only changing intelligently and with purpose to accommodate the massive changes within us will determine your greatness or smallness. What are you going to do about it?

- By Zagwazatha Kapito

All things must change to something new, to something strange. Henry Wadsworth Longfellow US poet (1807 - 1882).

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