CHINA

They say a leader is not a leader without his followers. China's remarkable growth to date which has reached dizzying heights of 13% has been anything but ordinary. The current credit crunch in its main export markets in the west comes as a downer for its forecasts for the next few years. Will China remain a leader without the West? granted that's a wee bit over-dramatizing...

My take is the West will use the current market conditions to re-align their industries, with most first world nations already re-training a substantial part of their population to achieve a strategic fit with future production and nationalisation already being used as a tool to ensure continuity and preserve national shareholding interests in critical sectors such as Banking (Nationalisation of Northern Rock UK, Freddie Mac etc in the USA, the car manufacturing industry- Jaguar may be wrested away from Tata through shareholding by the British government). China's growing exporter role will continue to decrease albeit only in the short term (4-5 years ) but its cost structures and unconscious competence in multiple fields will keep it abreast with unfortunately a marked loss of jobs in China's small to medium business private sector. Other commentators indicate that the current growth forecasts of between 5.5% (Morgan Stanley) and 7.5% would create a robust but stable growth that is more sustainable and reduces negative aspects aligned with the double digit growth that include labour unrest and pollution.

Africa has escaped adverse economic effects during this world economic depression mostly due to low finance related globalisation levels; but it should not sit on its laurels with an 'economic voyeur' attitude, African economies would best use this time to re-align their economies to achieve a better fit with the first world, especially towards creating staying buying power within their own economies, building local customer's and a strong middle class whose economic activity will reduce external foreign aid dependence. A simple income tax reduction on individuals would be a start to spreading the wealth, 'okay' with reduced tax revenues but hey! c'est la vie!, next would be ditching of western politics as erroneously implemented and adopting a blend that allows for continuity of worthy policies rather than a tearing down of entire policies and structures every time a new government takes hold.

Now for China's new friends the Least Developed Countries (LDC's), whats the impact of reduced economic growth, reduced economic assistance and counter-trade activity?